2015 Oscars: A Viewer's Guide

Welcome to Movie Porti's 2nd annual Oscars Viewer's Guide!

Just like last year, it's coming down to the wire! 

This year there are eight movies fighting it out to be named Best Picture. I would divide those eight movies into four tiers of two. In 8th and 7th place, falling into the "If Grand Hotel won Best Picture, then so can we" category, are Selma and The Theory of Everything. Selma received only one other nomination, for Best Original Song(ironically, it's favored to win there). The last movie to win Best Picture with two or fewer total nominations was Grand Hotel in 1932(it was only nominated for Best Picture). The Theory of Everything received five total nominations, and it's a strong contender for Best Actor and Best Original Score, but it wasn't nominated for Best Director or Best Editing, and the last movie to win Best Picture without a nomination for either of those categories was ... you guessed it! Grand Hotel in 1932.

In 6th and 5th place, in the "Age is only a number" category, we have two movies with strong followings that missed out on a Best Director nomination: Whiplash and American Sniper. Damien Chazelle(Whiplash) and Clint Eastwood(American Sniper) are on opposite ends of the age curve. Chazelle(29 years old when Whiplash premiered) becomes the youngest director to have his film nominated for Best Picture since M. Night Shyamalan, who was also 29 years old in 1999 when The Sixth Sense premiered. On the other hand, Clint Eastwood(84 years old when American Sniper premiered) became the oldest director to have his film nominated for Best Picture since John Huston, who was 79 years old in 1985 when Prizzi's Honor premiered.

Both Whiplash and American Sniper are very strong contenders in three categories where they go head to head: Best Adapted Screenplay, Best Editing, and Best Sound Mixing, but only one is a lock to win an Oscar. That would be Whiplash for J.K. Simmons in the Best Supporting Actor category. In the end, I believe both of these films will end up with at least one Oscar a piece, if not more(Sniper is a favorite in both sound categories). However, in order to win Best Picture they're gonna have to go the Argo route and win without the Best Director nomination, and that's something that I just can't see happening in a year where there are two heavy favorites.

Before we get to those, there are two movies in the "Don't forget about us" category that are looking to pull off the upset, The Imitation Game, in 4th place with eight nominations, and The Grand Budapest Hotel(not to be confused with Grand Hotel of 1932), in 3rd place, but tied for the most nominations with nine. The Grand Budapest Hotel is a lock in one category, Best Production Design, and a co-favorite in four others: Best Original Screenplay, Best Costume Design, Best Hair & Makeup, and Best Original Score, where coincidentally its composer, Alexandre Desplat, is competing against himself for the score of ... The Imitation Game. If things break right for The Grand Budapest Hotel, it could wind up as the movie with the most Oscars at the end of the night.

On the contrary, everything needs to go right for The Imitation Game in order to avoid becoming the American Hustle of this year's Oscars, going home empty handed with a high number of nominations. Out of its eight nominations, The Imitation Game is only a strong contender in two categories: Best Original Score, where I predict that Alexandre Desplat will be doubly disappointed when The Theory of Everything is announced as the winner, and Best Adapted Screenplay, where it has its strongest chance at a win. I predict there won't be a repeat of the American Hustle shutout from last year, as the Academy will recognize The Imitation Game for its screenplay, although there is a very high probability that I could be mistaken due to the strong support for both Whiplash and American Sniper.

And now to the frontrunners ...

Forget about anything you've heard about a possible surprise when the Best Picture winner is announced tonight. This isn't 2013, when Argo won, or 2006, when Crash beat Brokeback Mountain, or 1999, when Shakespeare in Love beat Saving Private Ryan. This year we've had two heavy favorites ever since the race started, and the race started over a year ago when Boyhood premiered at the Sundance Film Festival. Boyhood has received universal praise since that time, and it received six Oscar nominations. However, it trails Birdman by three nominations. Ever since it premiered at the Venice Film Festival, Birdman has also been universally praised, and it tied with The Grand Budapest Hotel for the most Oscar nominations with nine.

Now, because the race between them is so close, both Boyhood and Birdman are absolute locks in only one category: Best Supporting Actress for Patricia Arquette in Boyhood, and Best Cinematography for Emanuel "Chivo" Lubezki in Birdman(with that win, Lubezki will become the first person to win in this category in consecutive years since John Toll in 1994 & 1995  for Legends of the Fall and Braveheart). Even though they only have one lock a piece, I am predicting a second Oscar for both in categories where they don't compete against one another, but face tough challenges from other nominees.

I believe the Academy will want to award Michael Keaton in the Best Actor category for his incredible career ahead of newcomer Eddie Redmayne and possible surprise winner Bradley Cooper, who'll both probably get more chances for this award in the future. At 63 years old, Keaton became the oldest first time Best Actor nominee since Frank Langella for Frost/Nixon in 2008(he was 70 years old), and, with a win, Keaton would become the oldest winner in the category since Henry Fonda for On Golden Pond in 1981(he was 76 years old). As for Boyhood, I believe that pulling off its 12 year gimmick will give it the win for Best Editing, holding off strong competition from American Sniper and Whiplash.

*Jane Fonda accepting her father's Oscar at the 1982 Academy Awards

That just leaves the three categories where these movies, and their writer/director/producers, face off head to head: Best Original Screenplay, Best Director, and Best Picture. Richard Linklater(Boyhood) and Alejandro G. Iñárritu(Birdman) are also joined by Wes Anderson(The Grand Budapest Hotel) in all three categories. I predict that all three men will walk away happy(to varying degrees) at the end of the night. I believe the Academy will award Budapest's inventive screenplay, Birdman's technical perfection, and Boyhood's overall emotional impact. If this scenario plays out, it would be the third straight year where the Best Picture and Best Director winners don't match. It would also be the second straight year where a Mexican-born filmmaker wins Best Director(Alfonso Cuarón last year), after no hispanic had won in the previous 85 year history of the category. If Boyhood pulls off the win, it would be the first film to win Best Picture without winning any of the top prizes from the major guild awards(actors, writers, directors, and producers) since Braveheart in 1995.

Of course, there is a high probability that things don't turn out as I predict. There is a chance that Boyhood wins Best Picture, but loses every other category besides Best Supporting Actress. If that's the case, those two wins would be the fewest for a Best Picture winner since 1952's The Greatest Show on Earth. That wouldn't be the best comparison for Boyhood as that movie is consistently ranked as one of the worst Best Picture winners ever. If Birdman wins(my preferred choice), it would also be historic as it would become the first film to win Best Picture without a Best Editing nomination since Ordinary People in 1980.

Any way you look at it, the intrigue level is extremely high this year. As I have it, Birdman(Best Director, Best Cinematography, and Best Actor), Boyhood(Best Picture, Best Editing, and Best Supporting Actress), and The Grand Budapest Hotel(Best Original Screenplay, Best Production Design, and Best Costume Design) will end up tied for the most Oscars won with three a piece, with a high chance that Budapest wins for Best Hair & Makeup, but loses Original Screenplay to Birdman, and a chance that American Sniper or Whiplash also end up with three wins if they can pull off upsets for Best Editing, Best Adapted Screenplay, or Best Actor. There's also a chance that Birdman or Boyhood fever takes over the Academy and one of these movies sweeps the main categories of Best Picture, Best Director, and Best Screenplay. No movie this year received nominations in all five major categories(Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor, Best Actress, and Best Screenplay) though, so that means that the three member club that has swept those categories is safe(1934's It Happened One Night, 1975's One Flew Over the Cuckoo's Nest, and 1991's The Silence of the Lambs).

And now, other fun facts ...

*If American Sniper pulls off the shocking upset and wins Best Picture, it would become the highest grossing Best Picture winner since The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King in 2003.

*This is the first time ever that two movies that premiered at the Sundance Film Festival(Boyhood and Whiplash) have been nominated for Best Picture. Speaking of which, Boyhood could become the first Best Picture winner to premiere before Labor Day since 2009's The Hurt Locker

*Not a single winner from last year's Oscars was nominated this year. And speaking of last year's winners, this is the second straight year where Alec Baldwin plays the husband of the Best Actress winner(Cate Blanchett last year, Julianne Moore this year).

*Alexandre Desplat is not the only person competing against himself in the same category. Sound Mixer Jon Taylor is competing against himself for his work in Birdman and Unbroken. And Set Decorator Anna Pinnock is competing against herself for her work in The Grand Budapest Hotel and Into the Woods. I believe that Pinnock will be the only one benefitting from her increased odds.

"Always a Bridesmaid, Never a Bride" Segment

    - Diane Warren received her 7th Best Original Song nomination for her song "Grateful" from Beyond the lights, and for the 7th time she'll probably lose.

    - Roger Deakins received his 12th Best Cinematography nomination for his work in Unbroken, and for the 12th time he'll probably lose

"Bennett Miller Fun Facts" Segment

    - Bennett Miller is the first person since the Best Picture category expanded from five to up to ten nominees to get nominated for Best Director but not have his film nominated for Best Picture.

    - Bennett Miller received his 2nd career Best Director nomination in his 3rd career Feature Film. Not a bad batting average.

    - For an even better batting average, Miller is 3 for 3 in getting an Oscar nomination for his lead actor after Steve Carell received his first career nomination for his role in Foxcatcher. Previous Bennett Miller nominees include Brad Pitt for Moneyball and Philip Seymour Hoffman for Capote.

*Everyone in the Best Actor category is a first time nominee, except 3 time nominee Bradley Cooper. Everyone in the Best Supporting Actor category is a repeat nominee, except likely winner J.K. Simmons. Along that line ...

"Multiple Academy Award Nominated Actors" Segment

    - Keira Knightley receives her 2nd career nomination for her performance in The Imitation Game nine years after being nominated for her performance in Pride & Prejudice.

    - Laura Dern receives her 2nd career nomination for her performance in Wild after having to wait 23 years since her 1st nomination for her performance in Rambling Rose. Last year, her father Bruce Dern also received his 2nd career acting nomination, but he had to wait 35 years between nominations, so at least Laura beat her dad by 12 years.

    - Reese Witherspoon also receives her 2nd career nomination for her performance in Wild, and like Keira Knightley, she also had to wait nine years after winning an Oscar for her performance in Walk the Line. This should actually be Witherspoon's 3rd nomination, but the fact that she wasn't nominated for her performance as "Tracy Flick" in Alexander Payne's Election remains one of the Academy's most egregious snubs of the past 20 years.

    - Marion Cotillard also receives her 2nd career Best Actress nomination for her performance in Two Days, One Night, but she only waited seven years after winning an Oscar for her performance in La Vie en Rose. She becomes only the fifth person ever to receive two or more nominations for foreign-language performances.

    - Mark Ruffalo receives his 2nd career nomination for his performance in Foxcatcher, four years after he was nominated for his performance in The Kids Are All Right.

    - Ethan Hawke receives his 2nd career acting nomination, and 4th overall(nominated for the screenplays to Before Sunset and Before Midnight), for his performance in Boyhood, 13 years after he was nominated for his performance in Training Day.

    - Edward Norton receives his 3rd career nomination for his performance in Birdman. He had to wait 16 years between nominations after getting nominated twice in three years for his roles in Primal Fear and American History X. Norton could be considered the acting MVP of 2014 as he was the only actor to appear in multiple Best Picture nominees(Birdman and The Grand Budapest Hotel).

    - Bradley Cooper receives his 3rd straight nomination for his performance in American Sniper. He was previously nominated in 2012 for his performance in Silver Linings Playbook, and in 2013 for his performance in American Hustle. He is the first actor to accomplish this feat since Renée Zellweger from 2001-2003, and the first male actor to accomplish the feat since Russell Crowe from 1999-2001. In a strange coincidence, neither one of those actors has been nominated since.

    - Julianne Moore, the hands-down favorite to win Best Actress, receives her 5th career nomination for her performance in Still Alice. She had to wait 12 years between nominations, after getting nominated four times in a six year period from 1997 to 2002. A long overdue honor for one of the greatest actresses of her generation.

Speaking of the greats ...

    - Robert DuVall, at age 84, receives his 7th career nomination for his performance in The Judge. He had to wait 16 years between nominations. That ties him for 9th place among male actors with the most nominations, alongside Dustin Hoffman, Richard Burton, and Robert DeNiro. 

    - Meryl Streep is nominated once again for her performance in Into the Woods. That's her 19th career nomination, breaking the record of 18 acting nominations she set last year. She isn't likely to win, as Patricia Arquette is the clear favorite in her category. That just means that we can expect Mrs. Streep to extend her record as she searches for that 4th Oscar that would tie her with Katharine Hepburn for the most wins by an actor ever.

One More Thing ... 

If you have any doubts about Neil Patrick Harris's hosting abilities, watch this video of his opening act as host of the 2013 Tony Awards. As he says in the clip, with NPH as host we are guaranteed a LEGEN ... wait for it ... DARY show!!!!!!!!

And the Oscar Goes To ...