Welcome to Movie Porti's 4th annual Oscars Viewer's Guide!
La La Land will win Best Picture. The end.
Just kidding. I mean, La La Land *will win* Best Picture, but there's still plenty of intrigue to be found from the remaining 23 categories that will be recognized tonight. La La Land actually comes in with the highest intrigue factor of any nominated film tonight, as it will be trying to tie or break the record of 11 Oscars won by a film, shared by Ben-Hur(1959), Titanic(1997), and The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King(2003). La La Land already tied the record of 14 total nominations shared by All About Eve(1950) and Titanic, but I believe it will fall one win short of the record holders and end up with a grand total of 10 wins tonight.
The most Oscars La La Land could actually win is 13, as it's competing against itself in the Best Song category. The most Oscars it has a realistic shot of winning is 12, as the Best Actor category is a 2-man race between Casey Affleck(Manchester by the Sea) and Denzel Washington(Fences), so Ryan Gosling has no shot there. The other 2 categories I'm predicting La La Land won't win are Best Original Screenplay and Best Costume Design(I'll get into why in a bit). Other categories where I believe it could lose are Best Cinematography, where the strong support for Moonlight's overall beauty could cause an upset, and in one of the Sound categories, where the strong support for Hacksaw Ridge could cause another upset.
As I have it now, La La Land's path to the record 12 wins would be: the 7 locks, Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actress, Best Editing, Best Production Design, Best Score, and Best Original Song, where it's a toss up between "Audition(The Fools Who Dream)" and "City of Stars"(I believe "Audition" deserves the win, but I'll predict "City of Stars" as the one the voters go for). Then there's the 3 non-lock categories I think it *will win* : Best Cinematography, Sound Editing, and Sound Mixing. And finally, if the full sweep takes effect, I would definitely not be surprised if it also wins Best Original Screenplay and Best Costume Design, giving it the record.
Now, there's always a chance this doesn't go completely as I believe it will. Maybe 10 wins is too high a number for La La Land to reach. I keep going back and forth on if Editing and Production Design should be locks. If it loses one of those, plus 2 of the other non-lock categories(I feel pretty confident predicting 1 win in the sound categories at least), then its win total could go down to 7, which is still a very solid number for a Best Picture winner. For comparison's sake, the last 3 musicals to win Best Picture, 2002's Chicago, 1968's Oliver!, and 1965's The Sound of Music took home 6, 5, and 5 Oscars respectively.
All the other nominees tonight are surely hoping La La Land winds up more like those films than the 3 Best Picture musicals that immediately preceded them: 1964's My Fair Lady, which won 8 Oscars, 1961's West Side Story, whose 10 Oscar wins stand as the record for a musical, and 1958's Gigi, which sits between those two in 2nd place with 9 wins, and is also the last original musical to win Best Picture. If my predictions are correct tonight, then all 3 of these films will have to set aside some space in the record books for La La Land.
*The Oscar-winning crew of West Side Story, from left to right: Supporting Actor winner George Chakiris, Best Director winners Jerome Robbins & Robert Wise(also won as producer), and Supporting Actress winner Rita Moreno
Speaking of all the other nominees ...
Any other year, Moonlight would have a good chance to win Best Picture, but this year it has to settle for being the best of the also-rans. Of its 8 nominations, I have it as a lock to win 2: Best Adapted Screenplay and Best Supporting Actor, which Mahershala Ali clinched after his poignant SAG acceptance speech. In a year with a movie sweeping most of the categories, 2 wins for Moonlight would actually be pretty impressive, demonstrating the wide-ranging appeal this "little" movie had in 2016.
Now, there is a worst-case scenario for Moonlight that, however unlikely, could leave it empty-handed at the end of the night. It's possible that the Box Office success that Hidden Figures enjoyed less than a month ago could propel it to a surprise victory in the Adapted Screenplay category. Out of its 3 nominations, this category is the only one where it could realistically win, and I wouldn't be surprised if it manages to steal that award from the more deserving Moonlight. Remember that Hidden Figures already beat out Moonlight for Best Ensemble Cast at the SAG awards.
Then there's Mahershala Ali's case for Supporting Actor. He's not as strong a lock as other past winners in this category have been, having lost at the Golden Globe awards and more recently to Dev Patel(who's nominated tonight) at the BAFTAs. The Supporting Actor category has given us surprise winners in the past, but I believe Mahershala will hang on for the win, for 2 reasons mostly: one, because he's black, and the Academy wants to cool down all the #Oscarssowhite talk of the past 2 years, and two, because he was everywhere in 2016, and the Academy will sometimes reward an actor for their overall output in a given year, as they did with Alicia Vikander last year. Need proof that Ali was everywhere in 2016? He's one of only two actors to appear in multiple Best Picture nominees this year(Janelle Monáe is the other, also for the same two films, Hidden Figures and Moonlight).
2016 definitely was a strong year for black representation in cinema(let's hope it's not an outlier), with a 3rd Best Picture nominee added to that group, Fences. Fences is also nominated in the Best Adapted Screenplay category with Moonlight and Hidden Figures, but it has no chance of winning there(nominee August Wilson has been dead for 12 years, so I guess he won't mind). The outlook gets much better for Fences in the acting categories. Viola Davis is a lock to win her 1st Oscar on her 3rd try in the Best Supporting Actress category(it was really a co-lead performance, but whatever), and, as I mentioned before, Denzel Washington is in a neck-and-neck race with Casey Affleck for the Best Actor trophy.
If Denzel wins, this would be his 3rd career acting Oscar, tying him on the male side with Daniel Day-Lewis, Jack Nicholson, and Walter Brennan. Also if he wins, Denzel would become the first black actor to win multiple Best Lead Actor Oscars. One more Denzel fun fact: if he pulls off the win, and Viola and Mahershala(or Dev Patel) secure their wins as well, it would be the first year ever where 3 actors of color won an Oscar. The last instance with 2 such winners was exactly 10 years ago with Forrest Whitaker for Lead Actor and Jennifer Hudson for Supporting Actress, also 2 years before that, it happened with Jamie Foxx for Lead Actor and Morgan Freeman for Supporting Actor, and prior to both of those it happened in 2002, when Denzel won his Best Actor Oscar on the same night that Halle Berry won her Best Actress Oscar.
*Daniel Day-Lewis accepting his 3rd Best Actor Oscar for his performance in Lincoln, the only individual to ever accomplish that feat
Having said all that, I'm sticking with my gut and predicting that Casey Affleck will win the Best Actor Oscar by a hair. My thinking for this is that I believe Denzel's win at the SAG awards is not indicative of any late Oscars push, but was merely a make-up award correcting the fact that the Actor's Guild had never given him an award before, plus, there's the fact that Manchester by the Sea has much stronger support from the Academy than Fences and this category provides them with another chance to recognize one of their favorite movies of the year. Speaking of Manchester, with this win, plus another win I'm predicting for it in the Best Original Screenplay category, I have it tied with Moonlight for 2nd place with 2 Oscars won(out of 6 total nominations). Like Moonlight, Manchester has the possible worst-case scenario of winning nothing if Denzel prevails in Best Actor and it loses Best Original Screenplay in a La La Land super sweep.
Speaking of winning nothing ...
There's always one movie per year that takes the title of Most Overrated Best Picture nominee(previous honorees include American Hustle in 2013, The Imitation Game in 2014, and The Big Short in 2015). This year, that movie is Arrival. From a technical standpoint, it's a well made film(I gave it 3 tech noms in my personal nominations list), but story-wise, it's a very flawed film. It's tied for 2nd place with Moonlight with 8 total nominations, but I don't believe it deserved any of its nominations for Best Picture, Director, Editing, or Adapted Screenplay.
But since it is nominated for Best Picture, let's talk about its chances tonight. The only place where it has any chance of winning is in the non-La La Land-lock categories I previously mentioned: Best Cinematography and both Sound categories, but like I said, I see other movies ahead of Arrival that would win those if La La Land were to stumble. That would mean that, officially, I have Arrival going 0 for 8 tonight. Hey, the fact that a Sci-Fi film got nominated for Best Picture is already a win in my book.
Speaking of Sci-Fi, I'm picking Star Trek Beyond for the win in Best Hair & Makeup, first, because I don't think enough voters will have seen the Swedish film, A Man Called Ove, and second, because everyone, besides the people working in the Hair & Makeup branch of the Academy apparently, hated Suicide Squad. The only other category where a superhero movie has a chance to win an Oscar is Best Visual Effects, but that ain't happening. The general consensus for the entire year has been that the visual effects from The Jungle Book are spectacular, and therefore it's looking like a lock for the win. I don't see a reason to bet against it, so that's my pick here.
Back to the Best Picture nominees ...
The next Best Picture nominee on the list is Hacksaw Ridge, nominated for a total of 6 Oscars tonight. It has no shot of winning in the 3 major categories for which it's nominated(Best Picture, Director, and Actor), so that leaves Best Editing and the two Sound categories. It has a chance to surprise for Editing, but I just don't see La La Land losing there(giving Tom Cross his 2nd straight win for his work with Damien Chazelle after Whiplash). So that leaves the sound categories, where Hacksaw Ridge truly has a strong chance for a win. If it does win, it would probably be for Best Sound Editing, seeing as the Best Sound Mixing award usually goes to a musical when one is nominated there. But like I mentioned before, I'm predicting a win for La La Land in both Sound categories, so I believe that Hacksaw Ridge will also go home empty-handed at the end of the night.
Finally, there's the 2 longest of long shots of the Best Picture nominees. First, also with 6 nominations, is Lion. It's got a shot in the Best Cinematography category after having just won at the American Society of Cinematographers awards, but I'm picking La La Land there. I think its strongest chance for a win is in Supporting Actor, where Dev Patel could ride the momentum from his BAFTAs win all the way to an Oscars upset.
And in last place, with 4 total nominations, is Hell or High Water(the only film from the Best Picture group to premiere before Labor Day). It's nominated for Best Picture, Editing, Original Screenplay, and Supporting Actor, but it only has a very slim chance to win for Best Supporting Actor. There's a small chance this race could actually be wide open, and of course, Jeff Bridges is Hollywood royalty(more on that later), so you never know. It's also technically still alive in the Editing and Original Screenplay categories, but a win for Hell or High Water in any of those would be a huge surprise.
On to the remaining categories ...
When Damien Chazelle walks up to the podium to accept the Best Director Oscar for his remarkable work in La La Land, he will become the youngest person ever to win that award(He just turned 32), breaking a record that has stood for 85 years. He is a first-time nominee in the category, along with Barry Jenkins for Moonlight(only the 4th black filmmaker nominated in the category's history), Kenneth Lonergan for Manchester by the Sea, and Denis Villeneuve for Arrival. The only repeat nominee in the category is Mel Gibson, who received his 2nd career Best Director nomination 21 years after winning for Braveheart. Coincidentally, Braveheart is the last film to win Best Picture without being nominated for Best Ensemble Cast at the SAG awards, something that La La Land will replicate tonight.
If my predictions are correct, Barry Jenkins and Kenneth Lonergan will both be going home happy tonight, even though they'll lose for Best Director, since they're both heavy favorites to win for writing the screenplays to their respective films: Jenkins(along with Tarell Alvin McCraney) in Best Adapted Screenplay for Moonlight, and Lonergan in Best Original Screenplay for Manchester by the Sea. This is Kenneth Lonergan's 3rd career nomination for one of his screenplays, having lost for Gangs of New York in 2002 and You Can Count on Me in 2000. Damien Chazelle also joins Jenkins and Lonergan as a dual nominee for writing and directing La La Land. All 3 of these auteurs, however, fall short of La La Land's composer Justin Hurwitz, whose 3 nominations are the most of anyone tonight(He shares 2 of those with his songwriting partners, Benj Pasek and Justin Paul).
Hurwitz is pretty much guaranteed to walk away with 2 Oscars tonight, for Best Original Score and Best Original Song, the only person who can say that with any certainty right now. Of course, if the La La Land sweep takes effect, then Chazelle could also be saying the same thing at the end of the night. If La La Land gets the win in Original Screenplay, then it would be falling just one category short of winning all 5 major awards of the night(Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor, Best Actress, and Best Screenplay), something only 3 movies have accomplished in Oscars history: 1934's It Happened One Night, 1975's One Flew Over the Cuckoo's Nest, and 1991's The Silence of the Lambs.
La La Land is actually the first movie in the 4 years that I've written this blog to even get nominated in all 5 of the major categories. You already know it's favored to win 3 of those: Best Picture, Best Director, and Best Actress. In an alternate universe where Natalie Portman didn't win an Oscar already for her tremendous performance in Black Swan, I believe that we would be having a down-to-the-wire race between her and Emma Stone for the Best Actress prize. But since this isn't that universe, and Natalie Portman already has her Oscar(and Donald Trump is still president), then this year the award belongs to the universally beloved Stone. Some pundits have said that Isabelle Huppert has a shot at an upset, but I say no way! This one is an absolute lock.
Also for the first time in the 4 years I've written this blog, Emmanuel Lubezki will not win the Oscar for Best Cinematography, but that's only because he didn't work in any movie that was released in 2016. In fact, we are guaranteed a first-time winner, with 4 out of the 5 nominees, Bradford Young for Arrival(the first black person ever nominated in the category), Linus Sandgren for La La Land, Greig Fraser for Lion, and James Laxton for Moonlight, being first-timers. Rodrigo Prieto for Silence is the only repeat nominee, but it's only his 2nd career nomination and he hasn't won before. I'm picking Sandgren for the win here for his magical work in La La Land.
Contrary to the Cinematography contenders, the Best Costume Design category only has one newcomer and 4 repeat nominees. I'm actually predicting the win for that first-timer, Madeline Fontaine, for her work in Jackie. This category is one of the toughest of the night to predict, with Jackie competing directly against La La Land, plus there's the top dog in the category, the Lubezki of Costume Design, you could say, Colleen Atwood, whose nominated for a 12th time for her work in Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them, having already won on 3 previous occasions. If Jackie doesn't win, I'd put my money on Fantastic Beasts ahead of La La Land. I'd also bet on Fantastic Beasts having the best chance to upset La La Land in the Best Production Design category, if only because its nominated duo of Stuart Craig and Anna Pinnock have a combined 17 Oscar noms between them and 4 previous wins. But I'm sticking with La La Land there as well.
Continuing with the theme of first-time nominees, this year every filmmaker in the Best Documentary Feature category is a first-timer. OJ: Made in America already set the record for the longest movie ever nominated for an Oscar, and if it wins it will obviously set the record for the longest movie to ever win an Oscar. This category is stronger this year than in years past, with 2 other contenders that also deal with racial tensions in America: Ava DuVernay's 13th and Raoul Peck's I Am Not Your Negro, but I'm sticking with the general consensus on this one and predicting OJ: Made in America for the win.
There's another interesting first-time nominee this year, and that's the country of Australia in the Best Foreign Language Film category for the film Tanna. For the Aussies, it's gonna be an honor just to be nominated because this category has narrowed down to 2 contenders: the German film, Toni Erdmann, which has gotten rave reviews throughout the year, and the Iranian film, The Salesman, whose director, Asghar Farhadi, decided to boycott the ceremony after Trump's travel ban(that's not a ban) was announced. This could've resulted in a late season push from the voters in favor of Farhadi's film, but there's also the fact to consider that Farhadi already has a win in the category for his 2011 film, A Separation. This makes this category the toughest to predict of the night. I'm going with Toni Erdmann for the win, but I don't feel very confident about this one.
The choice doesn't get much easier in the Best Animated Feature category. Zootopia is looking to become Walt Disney Animation Studio's 3rd winner in the past 4 years(Frozen in 2013, Big Hero 6 in 2014) after not having won in the first 12 years of this category's existence. Disney has a 2nd nominee in the category, Moana, which also got a nomination for Lin-Manuel Miranda in the Best Original Song category(He'll have to try again in a non-La La Land year to complete his EGOT). The film with the best chance to upset Zootopia, however, isn't Moana, it's Laika's awe-inspiring Kubo and the Two Strings, their 2nd ever nominee in the category. The visuals in this one are so breathtaking that it became the 1st animated movie since 1993's The Nightmare Before Christmas to receive a nomination for Best Visual Effects.
The precursor awards have been evenly split between Kubo and Zootopia, and even though I admired Kubo just a bit more, I honestly loved both these films, and believe that Zootopia's overall appeal and its thematic relevance to social issues we're facing front and center today will help it hang on for the win. The mostly unseen The Red Turtle has been getting some strong support among voters, but I don't think it will be enough to surpass the two contenders ahead of it.
On to 3 Final Fun-Fact Segments ...
"A-List Nominated Producers Segment"
- Pharrell Williams receives his 1st career Best Picture nomination as one of the 5 producers of Hidden Figures. This is his 2nd career Oscar nomination after his hit song "Happy" from Despicable Me 2 was nominated for Best Original Song in 2013.
- Matt Damon receives his 1st career Best Picture nomination as one of the 5 producers of Manchester by the Sea. It's his 5th career nomination overall, with 3 for acting, and one for Original Screenplay(which he won). He now needs a Best Director nomination to join George Clooney and Warren Beatty as the only 2 individuals who've completed the career Oscars "cycle" of at least one nomination for Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor, and Best Screenplay.
*Orson Welles unofficially belongs to this group too for his debut masterpiece, Citizen Kane, but at that time the Best Picture nominations went to the studios and not to the individuals who actually produced the films*
Speaking of striving to win an Oscar ...
"Always a Bridesmaid, Never a Bride Segment"
- Thomas Newman receives his 14th career nomination for his Original Score in Passengers, and for the 14th time, he'll lose. Once again, he gets to feel proud at least, for extending his family's extraordinary Oscars legacy. This is the Newman family's 90th Oscar nomination. Incredible!
- Kevin O'Connell receives his 21st career nomination for Sound Mixing in Hacksaw Ridge, and if it weren't for La La Land, I would actually favor him to win his first Oscar tonight. However, war movies, specifically ones that are nominated for Best Picture, usually perform very well in the sound categories. What I'm trying to say is, in the immortal words of Lloyd Christmas, "So you're telling me there's a chance ... Yeah!"
"Multiple Academy Award-Nominated Actors Segment"
- Michael Shannon receives his 2nd career Best Supporting Actor nomination for his work in Nocturnal Animals(the only nomination of the night for this underrated film), 8 years after being nominated for his work in Revolutionary Road.
- Octavia Spencer receives her 2nd career Best Supporting Actress nomination for her work in Hidden Figures, 5 years after winning an Oscar in the category for her work in The Help.
- Casey Affleck receives his 2nd career nomination, and first in the Lead Actor category, for his work in Manchester by the Sea, 9 years after being nominated in the Supporting Actor category for his work in The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford.
- Emma Stone receives her 2nd career nomination, and first in the Lead Actress category, for her work in La La Land, 2 years after being nominated in the Supporting Actress category for her work in Birdman or(The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance).
- Ryan Gosling receives his 2nd career Best Lead Actor nomination for his work in La La Land, 10 years after being nominated for his work in Half Nelson.
- Viggo Mortensen receives his 2nd career Best Lead Actor nomination for his work in Captain Fantastic, 9 years after being nominated for his work in Eastern Promises.
- Viola Davis receives her 3rd career nomination, and 2nd in the Best Supporting Actress category, for her work in Fences. She was previously nominated for Supporting Actress 8 years ago for her work in Doubt, and for Lead Actress 5 years ago for her work in The Help.
- Natalie Portman receives her 3rd career nomination, and 2nd in the Lead Actress category, for her work in Jackie. She was previously nominated for Best Supporting Actress 12 years ago for her work in Closer, and she won an Oscar for Lead Actress 6 years ago for her work in Black Swan.
- Michelle Williams receives her 4th career nomination, and 2nd in the Best Supporting Actress category, for her work in Manchester by the Sea. Her 1st nomination came in the Supporting Actress category 11 years ago for her work in Brokeback Mountain, and then her next 2 nominations came back-to-back in 2010 and 2011 in the Lead Actress category for her work in Blue Valentine and My Week with Marilyn.
- Nicole Kidman receives her 4th career nomination, and 1st in the Best Supporting Actress category, for her work in Lion. Her 3 previous nominations, all in the Lead Actress category, occurred back-to-back in 2001 and 2002 for her work in Moulin Rouge! and The Hours(for which she won), and again in 2010 for her work in Rabbit Hole.
- Jeff Bridges receives his 7th career nomination, and 4th in the Best Supporting Actor category, for his work in Hell or High Water. His previous 2 nominations came back-to-back in the Lead Actor category in 2009 and 2010 for his work in Crazy Heart(for which he won) and True Grit. His 1st career nomination occurred 45 years ago(!) in the Supporting Actor category for his work in The Last Picture Show.
*That is just 3 years shy of the record for longest span between first and last career acting nomination, set by Katharine Hepburn, from Morning Glory in 1933 to On Golden Pond in 1981, winning 2 of her record 4 Oscars for her work in those films*
- Denzel Washington receives his 7th career acting nomination(8th total nomination including his producing nom this year), and 5th in the Best Lead Actor category, for his work in Fences. His previous nomination came 4 years ago in the same category for his work in Flight. His 1st career nomination came 29 years ago for his work in Cry Freedom. In between, he's won 2 Oscars, one for Best Supporting Actor for his work in Glory, and one for Best Lead Actor for his work in Training Day. He is the only black actor to ever win multiple Oscars.
And last, but certainly not least ...
- Meryl Streep receives her 20th career nomination, yes, that's 2 - 0, 20, and 16th in the Best Lead Actress category, for her work in Florence Foster Jenkins. Who wants to bet that she gets to 30? Let's do the math: Her 1st career nomination came 38 years ago in the Best Supporting Actress category for her work in The Deer Hunter, so in that time span, she's averaged 1 Oscar nomination every 1.9 years(with 3 wins mixed in). Let's round that up to 2 full years, which means that if she keeps up that pace she'll reach 30 nominations in the year 2036 when she'll be a young 87 years old. If 87 year old Gloria Stuart could get nominated for her role in Titanic(to date, the oldest acting nominee ever), then so can Meryl. And with Mrs. Streep, you know she'll probably come back the next year and break that record as well.
A final note on the host ...
But since it is nominated for Best Picture, let's talk about its chances tonight. The only place where it has any chance of winning is in the non-La La Land-lock categories I previously mentioned: Best Cinematography and both Sound categories, but like I said, I see other movies ahead of Arrival that would win those if La La Land were to stumble. That would mean that, officially, I have Arrival going 0 for 8 tonight. Hey, the fact that a Sci-Fi film got nominated for Best Picture is already a win in my book.
Speaking of Sci-Fi, I'm picking Star Trek Beyond for the win in Best Hair & Makeup, first, because I don't think enough voters will have seen the Swedish film, A Man Called Ove, and second, because everyone, besides the people working in the Hair & Makeup branch of the Academy apparently, hated Suicide Squad. The only other category where a superhero movie has a chance to win an Oscar is Best Visual Effects, but that ain't happening. The general consensus for the entire year has been that the visual effects from The Jungle Book are spectacular, and therefore it's looking like a lock for the win. I don't see a reason to bet against it, so that's my pick here.
Back to the Best Picture nominees ...
The next Best Picture nominee on the list is Hacksaw Ridge, nominated for a total of 6 Oscars tonight. It has no shot of winning in the 3 major categories for which it's nominated(Best Picture, Director, and Actor), so that leaves Best Editing and the two Sound categories. It has a chance to surprise for Editing, but I just don't see La La Land losing there(giving Tom Cross his 2nd straight win for his work with Damien Chazelle after Whiplash). So that leaves the sound categories, where Hacksaw Ridge truly has a strong chance for a win. If it does win, it would probably be for Best Sound Editing, seeing as the Best Sound Mixing award usually goes to a musical when one is nominated there. But like I mentioned before, I'm predicting a win for La La Land in both Sound categories, so I believe that Hacksaw Ridge will also go home empty-handed at the end of the night.
Finally, there's the 2 longest of long shots of the Best Picture nominees. First, also with 6 nominations, is Lion. It's got a shot in the Best Cinematography category after having just won at the American Society of Cinematographers awards, but I'm picking La La Land there. I think its strongest chance for a win is in Supporting Actor, where Dev Patel could ride the momentum from his BAFTAs win all the way to an Oscars upset.
And in last place, with 4 total nominations, is Hell or High Water(the only film from the Best Picture group to premiere before Labor Day). It's nominated for Best Picture, Editing, Original Screenplay, and Supporting Actor, but it only has a very slim chance to win for Best Supporting Actor. There's a small chance this race could actually be wide open, and of course, Jeff Bridges is Hollywood royalty(more on that later), so you never know. It's also technically still alive in the Editing and Original Screenplay categories, but a win for Hell or High Water in any of those would be a huge surprise.
On to the remaining categories ...
When Damien Chazelle walks up to the podium to accept the Best Director Oscar for his remarkable work in La La Land, he will become the youngest person ever to win that award(He just turned 32), breaking a record that has stood for 85 years. He is a first-time nominee in the category, along with Barry Jenkins for Moonlight(only the 4th black filmmaker nominated in the category's history), Kenneth Lonergan for Manchester by the Sea, and Denis Villeneuve for Arrival. The only repeat nominee in the category is Mel Gibson, who received his 2nd career Best Director nomination 21 years after winning for Braveheart. Coincidentally, Braveheart is the last film to win Best Picture without being nominated for Best Ensemble Cast at the SAG awards, something that La La Land will replicate tonight.
If my predictions are correct, Barry Jenkins and Kenneth Lonergan will both be going home happy tonight, even though they'll lose for Best Director, since they're both heavy favorites to win for writing the screenplays to their respective films: Jenkins(along with Tarell Alvin McCraney) in Best Adapted Screenplay for Moonlight, and Lonergan in Best Original Screenplay for Manchester by the Sea. This is Kenneth Lonergan's 3rd career nomination for one of his screenplays, having lost for Gangs of New York in 2002 and You Can Count on Me in 2000. Damien Chazelle also joins Jenkins and Lonergan as a dual nominee for writing and directing La La Land. All 3 of these auteurs, however, fall short of La La Land's composer Justin Hurwitz, whose 3 nominations are the most of anyone tonight(He shares 2 of those with his songwriting partners, Benj Pasek and Justin Paul).
Hurwitz is pretty much guaranteed to walk away with 2 Oscars tonight, for Best Original Score and Best Original Song, the only person who can say that with any certainty right now. Of course, if the La La Land sweep takes effect, then Chazelle could also be saying the same thing at the end of the night. If La La Land gets the win in Original Screenplay, then it would be falling just one category short of winning all 5 major awards of the night(Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor, Best Actress, and Best Screenplay), something only 3 movies have accomplished in Oscars history: 1934's It Happened One Night, 1975's One Flew Over the Cuckoo's Nest, and 1991's The Silence of the Lambs.
*The Oscar-winning crew of One Flew Over the Cuckoo's Nest, from left to right: Best Actor winner Jack Nicholson(his 1st of 3 career Oscar wins), Best Actress winner Louise Fletcher, and Best Picture winner Michael Douglas, yes, that Michael Douglas
La La Land is actually the first movie in the 4 years that I've written this blog to even get nominated in all 5 of the major categories. You already know it's favored to win 3 of those: Best Picture, Best Director, and Best Actress. In an alternate universe where Natalie Portman didn't win an Oscar already for her tremendous performance in Black Swan, I believe that we would be having a down-to-the-wire race between her and Emma Stone for the Best Actress prize. But since this isn't that universe, and Natalie Portman already has her Oscar(and Donald Trump is still president), then this year the award belongs to the universally beloved Stone. Some pundits have said that Isabelle Huppert has a shot at an upset, but I say no way! This one is an absolute lock.
Also for the first time in the 4 years I've written this blog, Emmanuel Lubezki will not win the Oscar for Best Cinematography, but that's only because he didn't work in any movie that was released in 2016. In fact, we are guaranteed a first-time winner, with 4 out of the 5 nominees, Bradford Young for Arrival(the first black person ever nominated in the category), Linus Sandgren for La La Land, Greig Fraser for Lion, and James Laxton for Moonlight, being first-timers. Rodrigo Prieto for Silence is the only repeat nominee, but it's only his 2nd career nomination and he hasn't won before. I'm picking Sandgren for the win here for his magical work in La La Land.
Contrary to the Cinematography contenders, the Best Costume Design category only has one newcomer and 4 repeat nominees. I'm actually predicting the win for that first-timer, Madeline Fontaine, for her work in Jackie. This category is one of the toughest of the night to predict, with Jackie competing directly against La La Land, plus there's the top dog in the category, the Lubezki of Costume Design, you could say, Colleen Atwood, whose nominated for a 12th time for her work in Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them, having already won on 3 previous occasions. If Jackie doesn't win, I'd put my money on Fantastic Beasts ahead of La La Land. I'd also bet on Fantastic Beasts having the best chance to upset La La Land in the Best Production Design category, if only because its nominated duo of Stuart Craig and Anna Pinnock have a combined 17 Oscar noms between them and 4 previous wins. But I'm sticking with La La Land there as well.
*3 time Oscar-winning Costume Designer Colleen Atwood
Continuing with the theme of first-time nominees, this year every filmmaker in the Best Documentary Feature category is a first-timer. OJ: Made in America already set the record for the longest movie ever nominated for an Oscar, and if it wins it will obviously set the record for the longest movie to ever win an Oscar. This category is stronger this year than in years past, with 2 other contenders that also deal with racial tensions in America: Ava DuVernay's 13th and Raoul Peck's I Am Not Your Negro, but I'm sticking with the general consensus on this one and predicting OJ: Made in America for the win.
There's another interesting first-time nominee this year, and that's the country of Australia in the Best Foreign Language Film category for the film Tanna. For the Aussies, it's gonna be an honor just to be nominated because this category has narrowed down to 2 contenders: the German film, Toni Erdmann, which has gotten rave reviews throughout the year, and the Iranian film, The Salesman, whose director, Asghar Farhadi, decided to boycott the ceremony after Trump's travel ban(that's not a ban) was announced. This could've resulted in a late season push from the voters in favor of Farhadi's film, but there's also the fact to consider that Farhadi already has a win in the category for his 2011 film, A Separation. This makes this category the toughest to predict of the night. I'm going with Toni Erdmann for the win, but I don't feel very confident about this one.
*2011 Best Foreign Language Film winner Asghar Farhadi
The choice doesn't get much easier in the Best Animated Feature category. Zootopia is looking to become Walt Disney Animation Studio's 3rd winner in the past 4 years(Frozen in 2013, Big Hero 6 in 2014) after not having won in the first 12 years of this category's existence. Disney has a 2nd nominee in the category, Moana, which also got a nomination for Lin-Manuel Miranda in the Best Original Song category(He'll have to try again in a non-La La Land year to complete his EGOT). The film with the best chance to upset Zootopia, however, isn't Moana, it's Laika's awe-inspiring Kubo and the Two Strings, their 2nd ever nominee in the category. The visuals in this one are so breathtaking that it became the 1st animated movie since 1993's The Nightmare Before Christmas to receive a nomination for Best Visual Effects.
The precursor awards have been evenly split between Kubo and Zootopia, and even though I admired Kubo just a bit more, I honestly loved both these films, and believe that Zootopia's overall appeal and its thematic relevance to social issues we're facing front and center today will help it hang on for the win. The mostly unseen The Red Turtle has been getting some strong support among voters, but I don't think it will be enough to surpass the two contenders ahead of it.
On to 3 Final Fun-Fact Segments ...
"A-List Nominated Producers Segment"
- Pharrell Williams receives his 1st career Best Picture nomination as one of the 5 producers of Hidden Figures. This is his 2nd career Oscar nomination after his hit song "Happy" from Despicable Me 2 was nominated for Best Original Song in 2013.
- Matt Damon receives his 1st career Best Picture nomination as one of the 5 producers of Manchester by the Sea. It's his 5th career nomination overall, with 3 for acting, and one for Original Screenplay(which he won). He now needs a Best Director nomination to join George Clooney and Warren Beatty as the only 2 individuals who've completed the career Oscars "cycle" of at least one nomination for Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor, and Best Screenplay.
*Orson Welles unofficially belongs to this group too for his debut masterpiece, Citizen Kane, but at that time the Best Picture nominations went to the studios and not to the individuals who actually produced the films*
*George Clooney celebrating his Best Picture win for Argo alongside co-producers Grant Heslov and Matt Damon's best buddy, Ben Affleck
- Denzel Washington receives his 1st career Best Picture nomination as one of the 3 producers of Fences. He's had a couple more nominations in his career for his acting, which I'll get into in the last segment coming up.
- Scott Rudin, who's definitely a behind-the-scenes A-Lister in Hollywood, receives his 8th career Best Picture nomination as one of the 3 producers of Fences. He's now only one Best Picture nomination behind Steven Spielberg for most All-Time. Rudin has only won once(same as Spielberg), for 2007's No Country for Old Men, so you know he's gonna keep striving for that 2nd win.
*Scott Rudin celebrating his Best Picture win for No Country for Old Men alongside the film's co-producers/writers/directors, Joel & Ethan Coen
Speaking of striving to win an Oscar ...
"Always a Bridesmaid, Never a Bride Segment"
- Thomas Newman receives his 14th career nomination for his Original Score in Passengers, and for the 14th time, he'll lose. Once again, he gets to feel proud at least, for extending his family's extraordinary Oscars legacy. This is the Newman family's 90th Oscar nomination. Incredible!
- Kevin O'Connell receives his 21st career nomination for Sound Mixing in Hacksaw Ridge, and if it weren't for La La Land, I would actually favor him to win his first Oscar tonight. However, war movies, specifically ones that are nominated for Best Picture, usually perform very well in the sound categories. What I'm trying to say is, in the immortal words of Lloyd Christmas, "So you're telling me there's a chance ... Yeah!"
"Multiple Academy Award-Nominated Actors Segment"
- Michael Shannon receives his 2nd career Best Supporting Actor nomination for his work in Nocturnal Animals(the only nomination of the night for this underrated film), 8 years after being nominated for his work in Revolutionary Road.
- Octavia Spencer receives her 2nd career Best Supporting Actress nomination for her work in Hidden Figures, 5 years after winning an Oscar in the category for her work in The Help.
- Casey Affleck receives his 2nd career nomination, and first in the Lead Actor category, for his work in Manchester by the Sea, 9 years after being nominated in the Supporting Actor category for his work in The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford.
- Emma Stone receives her 2nd career nomination, and first in the Lead Actress category, for her work in La La Land, 2 years after being nominated in the Supporting Actress category for her work in Birdman or(The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance).
- Ryan Gosling receives his 2nd career Best Lead Actor nomination for his work in La La Land, 10 years after being nominated for his work in Half Nelson.
- Viggo Mortensen receives his 2nd career Best Lead Actor nomination for his work in Captain Fantastic, 9 years after being nominated for his work in Eastern Promises.
- Viola Davis receives her 3rd career nomination, and 2nd in the Best Supporting Actress category, for her work in Fences. She was previously nominated for Supporting Actress 8 years ago for her work in Doubt, and for Lead Actress 5 years ago for her work in The Help.
- Natalie Portman receives her 3rd career nomination, and 2nd in the Lead Actress category, for her work in Jackie. She was previously nominated for Best Supporting Actress 12 years ago for her work in Closer, and she won an Oscar for Lead Actress 6 years ago for her work in Black Swan.
- Michelle Williams receives her 4th career nomination, and 2nd in the Best Supporting Actress category, for her work in Manchester by the Sea. Her 1st nomination came in the Supporting Actress category 11 years ago for her work in Brokeback Mountain, and then her next 2 nominations came back-to-back in 2010 and 2011 in the Lead Actress category for her work in Blue Valentine and My Week with Marilyn.
- Nicole Kidman receives her 4th career nomination, and 1st in the Best Supporting Actress category, for her work in Lion. Her 3 previous nominations, all in the Lead Actress category, occurred back-to-back in 2001 and 2002 for her work in Moulin Rouge! and The Hours(for which she won), and again in 2010 for her work in Rabbit Hole.
- Jeff Bridges receives his 7th career nomination, and 4th in the Best Supporting Actor category, for his work in Hell or High Water. His previous 2 nominations came back-to-back in the Lead Actor category in 2009 and 2010 for his work in Crazy Heart(for which he won) and True Grit. His 1st career nomination occurred 45 years ago(!) in the Supporting Actor category for his work in The Last Picture Show.
*That is just 3 years shy of the record for longest span between first and last career acting nomination, set by Katharine Hepburn, from Morning Glory in 1933 to On Golden Pond in 1981, winning 2 of her record 4 Oscars for her work in those films*
*Hollywood icon Katharine Hepburn making her only career appearance at the Academy Awards in 1974 to present the Irving G. Thalberg award to producer Lawrence Weingarten
And last, but certainly not least ...
- Meryl Streep receives her 20th career nomination, yes, that's 2 - 0, 20, and 16th in the Best Lead Actress category, for her work in Florence Foster Jenkins. Who wants to bet that she gets to 30? Let's do the math: Her 1st career nomination came 38 years ago in the Best Supporting Actress category for her work in The Deer Hunter, so in that time span, she's averaged 1 Oscar nomination every 1.9 years(with 3 wins mixed in). Let's round that up to 2 full years, which means that if she keeps up that pace she'll reach 30 nominations in the year 2036 when she'll be a young 87 years old. If 87 year old Gloria Stuart could get nominated for her role in Titanic(to date, the oldest acting nominee ever), then so can Meryl. And with Mrs. Streep, you know she'll probably come back the next year and break that record as well.
A final note on the host ...
I have no strong feelings either way about Jimmy Kimmel, who's hosting the Oscars for the first time tonight. To me he's just, meh. One thing I will be looking forward to is for his ongoing shtick with Matt Damon to make it onto the Oscars stage. Maybe Kimmel could mock Damon's youthful exuberance during his Unforgettable Acceptance Speech("Chris Moore! Chris Moore!) with best bud Ben Affleck. But seriously, this 100% genuine moment from 2 young filmmakers who 19 years later are among the biggest movie stars on the planet, is a perfect example of what makes this show so great. Who will provide us with the next unforgettable Oscars moment? I guess we'll all have to tune in tonight to find out.
And the Oscar Goes To ...
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