Welcome to Movie Porti's 3rd annual Oscars Viewer's Guide!
It's a wide open race for the top prize tonight! That means two things, one good and one bad. First, that the winner will probably be a less memorable film than in the past 2 years(12 Years a Slave in 2013, and Birdman in 2014), but secondly, that the Oscars telecast as a whole will probably be more entertaining, as the uncertain Best Picture race could produce more surprises and possibly historic upsets. Just like last year, we have 8 films battling it out in the Best Picture category. Last year I divided them into 4 tiers of 2, but this year I'm going 3-2-3.
First off, back from last year, it's the "If Grand Hotel won Best Picture, then so can we" category, featuring Brooklyn, in 8th place with 3 total nominations, Bridge of Spies, in 7th place with 6 total nominations, and The Martian, in 6th place with 7 total nominations. All 3 films have an acting nomination and a screenplay nomination, two important categories that one of the movies in the next tier got shut out of, but they failed to get nominated in either of the 2 most important categories that predict the eventual winner: Best Editing and Best Director. It's possible to win Best Picture without one of those two, as Argo did in 2012 without a Best Director nomination and Birdman did last year without a Best Editing nomination, but not both. The last film to win Best Picture without a nomination in either one of those categories was Grand Hotel way back in 1932. So those 3 movies are out, and it's looking like they'll be completely shut out too, something different from last year where every Best Picture nominee took home at least one Oscar.
On to the next tier, the "I really hope one of these movies wins, but they face an uphill climb" category, featuring Room, in 5th place with 4 total nominations, and Mad Max: Fury Road, in 4th place with 10 total nominations. Both these movies were universally adored by critics and viewers alike, including me, but both are missing some key nominations. Room is missing nominations, period. If it pulls off the shocking upset and wins Best Picture it would be the winner with the fewest total nominations since Cavalcade(also 4) in 1933. It was also left off the Best Editing shortlist, and even though Birdman pulled off the win last year, the last film to win without an Editing nomination before that was Ordinary People in 1980.
Mad Max: Fury Road is trying to go the Gravity route by racking up technical nominations, but no screenplay nomination. But Gravity had 2 things going for it that Mad Max doesn't, first, that it was the co-favorite to win Best Picture heading into Oscars sunday, and also that it received at least one acting nomination(for Sandra Bullock's lead role). Even with those 2 factors, Gravity didn't win(it lost to 12 Years a Slave). Without a screenplay nomination, there have still only been 2 winners in the past 50 years: The Sound of Music in 1965 and Titanic in 1997. Also, there have only been 11 films to win Best Picture without an acting nomination, the last one being Slumdog Millionaire in 2008(remember that one?). And without both, the last film to win was, again, Grand Hotel in 1932.
*Slumdog Millionaire director Danny Boyle
But the reason Mad Max belongs in this tier and not the previous one, and why I believe it has a chance to pull off a historic upset, is because it is a very strong contender in the Director and Editing categories, and the clear favorite in at least 3, if not more, of its other nominations. If it wins for Director and Editing it will most likely be the movie with the most Oscars won by the time the Best Picture winner is announced. And if the 3 frontrunners split the vote amongst themselves, which is very likely to happen, it could leave the door wide open for a movie with strong support, be it Mad Max or Room, which would also still be alive if it can beat The Big Short for Best Adapted Screenplay, to pull off the shocking win.
Speaking of the frontrunners, in 3rd place, with 5 total nominations, we have The Big Short. It's only the favorite in one category, Best Adapted Screenplay, but like I just said, watch out for the Room upset there. If that happens, it's likely that The Big Short goes home empty-handed. But I'll go with the safe prediction and say that it will hold on and win that award at least. It also has a chance to surprise in the Best Editing and Best Supporting Actor categories. If that happens, that would be the worst possible outcome of the night for me(I have The Big Short as the most overrated Best Picture nominee this year), because that would mean that the movie got a late push in the voting and would probably be the one called when the Best Picture winner is announced. Here's hoping that doesn't happen.
Then we have the 2 remaining contenders, 1A and 1B you could say, and that's not a good thing for either of them. I'm gonna say that The Revenant, with the most total nominations at 12, is actually in 2nd place. There are 2 main reasons for that. First, is the fact that history is not on this movie's side(more on that later), and second, is the fact that Alejandro G. Iñarritu won Best Director and Best Picture last year for Birdman and I don't see the Academy members wanting to reward him like that 2 years in a row. If you gave me a choice, I'd say Iñarritu is more likely to win Best Director than Best Picture, seeing as how The Revenant joins Mad Max without a screenplay nomination, but my official prediction for the Best Director category is that Mad Max's George Miller will be rewarded, one, for the excellent job he did, but two, because the old white voters at the Academy love to reward old white filmmakers
*George Miller celebrating his win for Happy Feet in the Best Animated Feature category
Even if The Revenant loses in those two categories, it will still have a pretty good night. Leonardo DiCaprio is a lock to win his first Oscar, on his 5th try, in the Best Actor category, and once again, for a 3rd year in a row(first time ever for the category), Emmanuel "Chivo" Lubezki is a lock to win the Best Cinematography Oscar(Aside: Is there anyone else in the world dominating their craft like Lubezki is doing right now? Maybe Lin-Manuel on Broadway? Steph Curry in the art of 3-point shooting? This shot from last night would be the equivalent to Lubezki's work in The Revenant. Speaking of the NBA, this is starting to resemble Jordan's dominance in the 90s. I'll bet that Roger Deakins dreams about Lubezki one day suddenly retiring and deciding to play Minor League Baseball). The Revenant also goes head to head with Mad Max in 5 other technical categories. If it starts to rack up 2 or 3 wins early in the night in those categories, it's likely that the late voter push went in The Revenant's direction and it would be the one most likely to win Best Picture. But I don't believe that will happen. If one movie sweeps the technical categories, it's going to be Mad Max, and that will leave the door open for option 1A, with 6 total nominations, Spotlight.
This one reminds me too much of Argo 3 years ago. That year there was no clear frontrunner and it came down to 3 choices. Out of those 3, the Academy voters went by the book. They chose a "based on a true story" procedural film about a group of people working together in the face of difficult odds, with an excellent ensemble cast, great editing that keeps you on the edge of your seat even though you already know how it ends, and excellent attention to period-specific details. That's Spotlight! It's the safe choice. It might not get the most #1 votes, but it'll get plenty of 2s and 3s. It's only a lock to win one category, Best Original Screenplay, so I could be completely wrong with this prediction, but it also has a strong chance to win Best Editing, and both Mark Ruffalo and Tom McCarthy could surprise in the Best Supporting Actor and Best Director categories respectively. If any of these wins happen then you can take this prediction to the bank, if not, it would still be alive with only the screenplay win. The 2 total wins would be the fewest for a Best Picture winner since 1952's The Greatest Show on Earth, but hey, crazier things have happened.
And now, other fun facts ...
*Again this year, none of the movies were nominated in all 5 of the major categories: Picture, Director, Lead Actor, Lead Actress, and Screenplay, so the 3 member club to have swept those prizes will stay as: 1934's It Happened One Night, 1975's One Flew Over the Cuckoo's Nest, and 1991's The Silence of the Lambs
*If Mad Max: Fury Road wins Best Picture it would be the first film that premiered before Labor Day to win since The Hurt Locker in 2009
*If Mad Max: Fury Road or Room wins Best Picture it would be the first film to win the Academy's top prize without winning any of the major guild's(Actors, Writers, Directors, and Producers) top prize since Braveheart in 1995
"History is not on The Revenant's side" segment
-If Iñarritu wins Best Director, he would become just the 3rd person ever to win in consecutive years. The other 2 occurrences were: John Ford for The Grapes of Wrath and How Green Was My Valley in 1940-1941, and Joseph L. Mankiewicz for A Letter to Three Wives and All About Eve in 1949-1950.
-If The Revenant wins Best Picture, Iñarritu would become the first person *ever* to direct 2 consecutive Best Picture winners.
-If The Revenant wins Best Picture it would be the first film *ever* to win without receiving at least one of these two nominations: The SAG Best Ensemble Cast nomination, or a Writer's Guild Best Screenplay(Original or Adapted) nomination.
*Honestly, I don't get how so many Oscars pundits are saying The Revenant will win. If you're a betting man, or woman, after reading these stats there is no way you put your money on The Revenant. You can thank me later.
* Two more The Revenant-related fun facts ...
-Iñarritu is the only one of the Best Director nominees who isn't a first-time nominee in the category. In fact, this is his 3rd career nomination in the category out of a total of 6 Full-Length Feature Films he's directed. Not a bad batting average.
-The Revenant features the only 2 actors to appear in multiple Best Picture nominees: Domhnall Gleeson, who also stars in Brooklyn, and Tom Hardy, who also stars in Mad Max: Fury Road, which makes him the Acting MVP of 2015.
* Two other nominees competing against themselves ...
-Andy Nelson, in the Sound Mixing category, for his work on Star Wars: The Force Awakens, and Bridge of Spies(he'll lose for both)
-Sandy Powell, in the Costume Design category, for getting to dress Cate Blanchett in Carol and Cinderella(which I'm picking for the win, although she could also lose both to a Mad Max or The Revenant sweep in the below-the-line categories)
*Other two-time nominees tonight ...
-Alejandro G. Iñarritu, in the Best Director and Best Picture categories for The Revenant
-George Miller, in the Best Director and Best Picture categories for Mad Max: Fury Road
-Adam McKay, in the Best Director and Best Adapted Screenplay categories for The Big Short
-Tom McCarthy, in the Best Director and Best Original Screenplay categories for Spotlight
-Pete Docter, in the Best Original Screenplay and Best Animated Feature categories for Inside Out
*Inside Out, Up, and Monsters Inc. director Pete Docter
*Inside Out is the 8th Pixar film, out of 16 total films, to receive an Oscar nomination for its Screenplay(all Original except Toy Story 3). Again, not a bad batting average. Sadly, none of them have won. They have won 7 Best Animated Feature Oscars(most of any studio by far), and Inside Out is very likely to give them win #8.
*John Lasseter receiving a Special Achievement Oscar for Toy Story in 1996
*Charlie Kaufman's nomination in the Best Animated Feature category for Anomalisa is his 4th career nomination, but first that isn't for one of his Screenplays. He lost for Being John Malkovich and Adaptation, and won for Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind(my Favorite Movie of All-Time)
*Anomalisa Co-Director, and All-Around Genius, Charlie Kaufman
"Always a bridesmaid, never a bride" segment ...
-Diane Warren receives her 8th career nomination for co-writing, with Lady Gaga, "Til' it Happens to You" for the documentary The Hunting Ground. She finally looks like the frontrunner to win her first Oscar.
-Roger Deakins receives his 13th career nomination for his cinematography in Sicario. Again, he'll lose to Lubezki.
-Thomas Newman also receives his 13th career nomination for composing the Bridge of Spies Original Score. Again, it looks like he'll lose. At least he can feel proud of extending his family's legacy in the musical categories. This is the Newman family's 89th career nomination.
*Thomas' cousin, Randy Newman, celebrating one of his 2 career wins out of 20 total nominations
Speaking of legendary composers ...
*Ennio Morricone, at 87 years old, becomes the oldest person ever nominated for an Oscar. He already won an Honorary Oscar in 2007, but now he's the frontrunner to win his first competitive Oscar out of 6 career nominations for his work in The Hateful Eight.
*John Williams receives his 50th career nomination(take that, Streep!) for his work in Star Wars: The Force Awakens. He's still 9 nominations shy from the All-Time leader ... Walt Disney.
One more Old-Timer ...
*Bridge of Spies is the 8th film directed by Steven Spielberg to be nominated for Best Picture, tying him with Martin Scorsese for most among living directors. It also gives him his 9th nomination as a producer, the most among living producers. His one Best Picture nominee that he didn't direct? Clint Eastwood's Letters From Iwo Jima. Who knew, right?
*Spielberg celebrating his Best Picture and Best Director wins for Schindler's List and his Best Director win for Saving Private Ryan
"Other A-Listers you didn't realize were nominated" segment
-Ridley Scott was snubbed for a Best Director nomination, but at least he gets a nomination for producing The Martian, his 1st of 4 career nominations that's not in the Director category(he lost for Thelma & Louise, Gladiator, and Black Hawk Down).
-Brad Pitt receives his 3rd career nomination as a producer for The Big Short(he lost for Moneyball and won for 12 Years a Slave). That ties his 3 career Acting nominations, for 12 Monkeys, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, and Moneyball.
-The Coen brothers receive their 14th career nomination each for the Original Screenplay to Bridge of Spies. It's their 6th career nomination in one of the Screenplay categories, but first for a movie that one, or both, of them didn't direct.
*The Coen brothers celebrating their Oscars sweep in 2008 with No Country for Old Men
"Multiple Academy Award Nominated Actors" segment
- Saoirse Ronan receives her 2nd career nomination for her lead performance in Brooklyn, 8 years after being nominated as a supporting actress in Atonement
- Rooney Mara receives her 2nd career nomination for her supporting performance(she was really a lead, but whatever) in Carol, 4 years after she was rightly nominated as a lead actress in The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
- Michael Fassbender receives his 2nd career nomination for his lead performance in Steve Jobs, 2 years after being nominated as a supporting actor in 12 Years a Slave
- Eddie Redmayne receives his 2nd consecutive Best Actor nomination for his performance in The Danish Girl, after winning last year for his performance in The Theory of Everything
- Sylvester Stallone receives his 2nd career acting nomination, and 3rd total(he was also nominated for writing the Original Screenplay for Rocky), for his supporting performance as "Rocky Balboa" in Creed. He sets the record for the longest wait between nominations for playing the same character at 39 years. The record was held by Paul Newman, at 26 years, for playing "Fast" Eddie Felson in The Hustler and The Color of Money. A good sign for Stallone is that Newman won his first Oscar on that second nomination(He did have 5 other nominations in between, a little better than Stallone's 0).
*Hollywood Icon Paul Newman
- Mark Ruffalo receives his 3rd career Best Supporting Actor nomination for his performance in Spotlight. He was previously nominated in 2010 for The Kids Are All Right and last year for Foxcatcher
- Christian Bale receives his 3rd career nomination for his performance in The Big Short, 2 years after being nominated for his lead performance in American Hustle, and 5 years after winning in this category for his performance in The Fighter
- Matt Damon receives his 3rd career acting nomination, and 4th overall(He won for writing the Original Screenplay for Good Will Hunting with his pal Ben Affleck), for his lead performance in The Martian. This is his first nomination in the category since he was nominated for his performance in Good Will Hunting 18 years ago(my, how time flies!). He was also nominated for his supporting performance in Invictus in 2009
- Jennifer Lawrence receives her 4th career nomination, and 3rd in the lead actress category, for her performance in Joy. I'm not doing a "Jennifer Lawrence fatigue" section this year, but that's only because I didn't even see Joy. So I guess that speaks for itself
- Leonardo DiCaprio receives his 5th career acting nomination, and 6th overall(He was nominated for producing The Wolf of Wall Street), for his lead performance in The Revenant. It's Leo's time this year, as he's an absolute lock to win Best Actor in a relatively weak year for the category.
And finally, we have the 2 Cates/Kates with a DiCaprio connection ...
- Cate Blanchett receives her 7th career nomination, and 4th in the lead actress category, for her performance in Carol. In a not so surprising coincidence, this is the 4th time that DiCaprio and Blanchett have been nominated in the same year. 2 of those times, in 2004 when they co-starred and were both nominated for The Aviator and in 2013 for Blue Jasmine, DiCaprio had to watch Blanchett walk up to the podium to accept her Oscar as he lost. This year, it's Cate's turn to watch Leo win.
- Kate Winslet also receives her 7th career nomination, and 3rd in the supporting actress category, for her performance in Steve Jobs. Of course, you all know about Kate and Leo's Titanic connection(she was nominated, he wasn't), but Kate has also been nominated twice in the same year as both DiCaprio and Blanchett: in 2004 for one of my All-Time Favorite performances in Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind, and in 2006 for her lead performance in Little Children. Her nomination this year is her first since she won the Best Actress Oscar 7 years ago for her performance in The Reader. I was starting to think that maybe I had jinxed her when I named my new dog "Winslet" in honor of my favorite actress back in 2010.
A final note on the host ...
In a year where the predictions in some of the main categories, particularly Best Picture, are tougher than usual, there is one prediction that I'm 100% certain will happen: Chris Rock will mention the #Oscarssowhite controversy in his opening monologue. The only uncertainty with that is just how quickly he'll mention it. My money's on the first 30 seconds. If I get that prediction correct right off the bat, I'll know that I'm going to have a pretty good night prediction-wise, which means that Spotlight will have a good night Best Picture-wise. But honestly, this year I'm rooting against myself because I want the Academy to make the bold, and right, choice of naming either Room or Mad Max: Fury Road as the Best Picture of 2015.
And the Oscar Goes To ...