It's coming down to the wire!
In what is one of the closest races in Oscars history, we have a two-way battle for Best Picture at tomorrow night's 86th Annual Academy Awards between "Gravity" and "12 Years a Slave", with 10 and 9 nominations, respectively. The rest of the Best Picture nominees, in order of nominations, are: "American Hustle", also with 10 nominations, "Captain Phillips", "Dallas Buyers Club", and "Nebraska" with 6 nominations, "Her" and "The Wolf of Wall Street" with 5 nominations, and "Philomena" with 4 nominations. The last 4 movies mentioned didn't receive an Editing nomination, so they're basically eliminated. The last film to win Best Picture without an Editing nomination was "Ordinary People" 33 years ago(how it won over "Raging Bull", we'll never know). Plus, "Her" didn't receive any Acting nominations either which gives it the double "Michael Corleone Kiss of Death" since only 11 films have ever won Best Picture without an Acting nomination. 5th and 4th place goes to "Captain Phillips" and "Dallas Buyers Club". "Captain Phillips" is a strong contender in the Editing and Sound categories and "Dallas Buyers Club" is the front-runner in 3 categories: Hair & Makeup, Best Supporting Actor, and Best Actor. However, both films were notably snubbed for Best Director, and we all know that the last film to win Best Picture without a nomination for its Director was "Argo" way back in ... wait a minute here ... I guess they still have a chance then!
In 3rd place we have "American Hustle", tied with "Gravity" for most nominations of the night with 10. I'll be paying attention to this one, but for a different reason. It has a chance to tie "Gangs of New York" and "True Grit" for the 2nd highest number of nominations without a win(2 other films share the record at 11 nominations without a win). It could've had 11 nominations, but, for some reason, it wasn't nominated for Hair & Makeup, which was probably the best thing about that movie. I mean, after the opening scene with Christian Bale and his hairpiece it all goes downhill pretty fast. Speaking of Bale, I enjoyed his performance, but in a very strong year for the Best Actor category(more later), I believe he wasn't among the 5 best of the year(Joaquin Phoenix, Tom Hanks, or Michael B. Jordan could've taken that spot). Now, because he was nominated, and the other 3 lead actors were too, "American Hustle" becomes only the 15th film ever to receive nominations in all 4 Acting categories, and the 2nd straight David O. Russell film to do so. Before last year's "Silver Linings Playbook", the last film to accomplish this feat was Warren Beatty's "Reds" way back in 1981.
David O. Russell is on quite a roll! This is his 3rd Best Director nomination in the last 4 years. Only one other director since 1960(Clint Eastwood) has accomplished this feat. One of "Hustle's" co-producers, Megan Ellison(who also co-produced "Her"), became only the 4th producer, and 1st woman, to score 2 Best Picture nominations in the same year. That's one of the perks of being the daughter of the 3rd richest man in America, Oracle co-founder and CEO Larry Ellison, you get to produce any movie you want. I predict that both Ellison and O. Russell will be very disappointed though, at the end of the night. "American Hustle" is a contender in 3 or 4 categories, but I believe it only has a realistic shot at winning one of those(more on that later).
Now it gets fun ...
The first of the co-favorites, "Gravity", became only the 5th film ever to receive nominations in all 7 technical categories: Cinematography, Editing, Original Score, Production Design, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing, and Visual Effects. The first film to accomplish this feat, "Titanic", went on to win Best Picture even though it didn't receive a Screenplay nomination(something "Gravity" will try to replicate). It won't be easy, since the only other film to win Best Picture without a Screenplay nomination in the past 58 years was "The Sound of Music" way back in 1965. Again, as "Argo" proved last year, anything can happen.
The other co-favorite to take home the top prize is "12 Years a Slave". Right now, the problem for "Slave" is that it only looks like a lock in 2 categories: Lupita Nyong'o for Best Supporting Actress and John Ridley for Best Adapted Screenplay. It's also up for Best Actor, Best Supporting Actor, Costume Design, Best Director, Editing, and Production Design. In those last 3 categories it's up directly against "Gravity", so those are definitely ones to watch for before the big prize. In the Actor & Supporting Actor categories, Ejiofor & Fassbender face tough competition from the boys of "Dallas Buyers Club": Leto & McConaughey. Leto is a Slam Dunk, having won all major precursor awards, but McConaughey has also appeared to pull ahead of the pack in a very, very tight Best Actor race. This category could turn out to be the most important of the night. Ejiofor is currently a very close 2nd(with DiCaprio also in the hunt), and if he can pull off the win, which I think he deserves, it would probably guarantee a Best Picture victory for "12 Years a Slave". If Ejiofor wins he would also become just the 5th black man ever to win Best Actor. If McConaughey takes the trophy, then the final award of the night will be totally up for grabs between "Gravity" and "12 Years a Slave".
Another important category for "12 Years a Slave" will be Best Costume Design. It is one category where it doesn't compete directly with "Gravity", but it faces two other tough challengers in "The Great Gatsby" and "American Hustle". I'm totally torn on who to pick in this one. Support for "12 Years a Slave" would bolster its chances for Best Picture, so my heart tells me it will win here. The problem is that "The Great Gatsby" looks like the favorite and also that this could be "American Hustle's" best chance at a win, so the voters might want to reward it here(the costumes are actually one of the few bright spots in the film).
Moving on ...
Alfonso Cuarón is pretty much a lock for Best Director for his transcendent work on "Gravity". He would become the first hispanic to win the award in its 85-year history(Finally!). Cuarón also received an Editing nomination and a Best Picture nomination for producing"Gravity", tying him with Spike Jonze from "Her" for the most individual nominations of the year with 3. Jonze got nominations for Best Picture, Original Screenplay(for which he's favored to win), and Original Song, but was snubbed for Best Director, which I believe he deserved and would've given him an incredible 4 nominations for the night. "Her" competes directly with "Gravity" in 2 technical categories: Best Production Design and Best Original Score. "The Great Gatsby's" incredible party sets are actually favored in Production Design but "Gravity" is still favored for its Original Score. It is also the favorite or co-favorite in the other technical categories for which it's nominated.
It's quite possible that going into the final award of the night, "Gravity" could have 7 wins and "12 Years a Slave" could only have 2. If this scenario occurs, then "Gravity" will most likely win Best Picture. If the voters split the awards between more films in order to honor "Captain Phillips", "American Hustle", or even an underdog like "Philomena" for its Original Score or "Nebraska" for its black and white Cinematography, then "12 Years a Slave" will most likely win Best Picture. Plus, there's a chance that "Slave" wins for Costume Design, Production Design, or, more importantly, Best Actor. After a lot of thought, I'm going with my heart instead of my head on this one and I'm predicting that "12 Years a Slave" will win Best Picture, even if it only ends up with 3 total wins for the night(remember that "Argo" won Best Picture last year with only 3 total wins). I certainly wouldn't have any problem with "Gravity" winning the top prize, but I predict it will fall just short, ending up with the consolation of the most awards at the end of the night with 7 total wins. Pretty fun indeed!
Other things I'm keeping an eye on ...
"Frozen" is looking to become Disney Animation Studio's 1st winner in the Best Animated Feature category(shocking, right?). Even though it's the favorite, it's competing against Hayao Miyazaki's "The Wind Rises". With this film, Miyazaki becomes the most nominated person in the category's short history with his 3rd nomination. "Frozen's" showstopper, "Let it Go", is also the favorite for Best Original Song(It's a shame that the academy snubbed the beautiful "Do You Want to Build a Snowman?"). If it wins, songwriter Robert Lopez will become just the 12th person ever to complete the entertainment Grand Slam, the EGOT: Emmy, Grammy, Oscar, and Tony. Mr. Lopez just turned 39 last week, so he could probably complete another Grand Slam if he wanted to. Incredible! It's not the easiest year for the category, with popular nominees like Pharell and U2, but I predict that "Let it Go" and Mr. Lopez will take home the prize.
*EGOT winner Rita Moreno
Speaking of music ...
John Williams received his 49th nomination for the Original Score to "The Book Thief". That sounds unbelievable until you learn that he is still a full 10 nominations behind Walt Disney for the most nominations for an individual in Oscars history. Mr. Disney would roll over in his grave if he found out it took his Animation Studio 13 years to get its first win for Best Animated Feature(if it weren't for Mr. Disney the category wouldn't even exist). I predict that drought ends tomorrow night with a "Frozen" win. Disney Animation Studios is also the favorite in the category that gave Mr. Disney 12 of his record 22 competitive Oscars: Best Animated Short Film, with "Get a Horse", the Mickey Mouse cartoon that preceded "Frozen" in theaters. It would become just the 2nd Animated Short starring Mickey Mouse, and the 1st since 1941, to win the award. I predict Mickey's 72-year wait ends tomorrow night, simply because this might be the only Animated Short Film that most voters saw.
One more Disney-related fun fact ...
Thomas Newman's nomination for the Original Score of Walt Disney Studio's "Saving Mr. Banks" is the 88th career nomination for the Newman Family. That's one talented family!
Scorsese fun fact ...
Martin Scorsese has now directed the most Best Picture nominated films(8) among living directors. Woody Allen and Steven Spielberg are now tied for 2nd place with 7.
Old-timers section ...
-If they both somehow win(highly unlikely), June Squibb and Bruce Dern from "Nebraska" would become the oldest winners in their respective category's histories.
-This is 79-year old Judi Dench's 7th career nomination. Amazingly, all of them have come after she turned 63! The closest runner-ups for over-60 nominations are all tied with 3 nominations(and they're all dead too). When someone tells you you're too old to do something, just remember Dame Judi.
Jennifer Lawrence Fatigue section ...
-She becomes the youngest person ever to receive 3 Acting nominations(she's just 23)
-She's now on pace to break Kate Winslet's record of 6 nominations by the age of 33
-If she wins(I sure hope she doesn't) she would become the youngest person to win 2 Acting Oscars
-If she wins(that would be the worst possible outcome of the night for me) she would become just the
6th person ever to win consecutive Acting Oscars, and the first since Tom Hanks in '93/'94 for
"Philadelphia" and "Forrest Gump"(With his snub, he's still without a nomination since 2001)
Multiple Oscar-nominated Actors section ...
-Jonah Hill receives his 2nd career nomination in the past 3 years. Who knew the kid with the boots in
the Ebay store would be this good this fast? I sure didn't.
-Bradley Cooper receives his 2nd straight nomination, both for David O. Russell films: Lead Actor in
"Silver Linings Playbook" last year, and Supporting Actor for "American Hustle" this year. Raise
your hand if you thought that only 4 years after "All About Steve", Bradley Cooper and Sandra
Bullock would each have 2 Oscar nominations. Ok, now put your hand down, liar!
-Christian Bale receives only his 2nd career nomination(also for David O. Russell films in the past 4
years). It's a shame that after an extraordinary 25-year career that began with Steven Spielberg's
"Empire of the Sun" he has the same number of career nominations as ...
-Sandra Bullock receives her 2nd career nomination for a solid performance in "Gravity"(let's not talk
about "The Blind Side"). As Jennifer Lawrence knows, being named America's Sweetheart guarantees
you at least 2 Oscar nominations. Speaking of America's Sweethearts ...
-Julia Roberts receives her 4th Oscar nomination, her first since her Oscar-winning turn as
Erin Brockovich in 2001. From America's Sweethearts to America's Heartthrob, also with 4 noms ...
-Leonardo DiCaprio receives his 4th career Acting nomination, and he's still just 39! As I wrote in my list of the best performances of the year: "seems like he's been around forever, but his performances,
just like his looks, keep getting better with age". Speaking of age-39 multiple Oscar nominees ...
-Amy Adams receives her 5th career nomination, her first in the Best Actress category. She is the only
one in her category who hasn't won an Oscar previously. Kate Winslet won on her 6th try, so hang in
there Amy!
Speaking of previous Oscar winners in the Best Actress category ...
-Cate Blanchett receives her 6th career nomination for her fabulous performance in "Blue Jasmine"(the movie with the most nominations, with 3, for a non-Best Picture nominee) and she's pretty much a lock to win her 2nd Oscar, her first in the Best Actress category. A long overdue honor for one of the greatest of her generation.
From the greatest of her generation, to the greatest of any generation ...
-Meryl Streep receives her 18th career nomination. Yes, you read that right. 18 career nominations.
She's still going strong and just keeps putting this record out of reach. The runner-ups for most career
nominations are Jack Nicholson and Katherine Hepburn with 12 apiece. Even with Jennifer Lawrence
becoming the youngest ever to 3 nominations, she would still need 15 more nominations just to tie
Mrs. Streep, and that's assuming Meryl decides to retire tomorrow, because you know that if she keeps
acting she is most likely to receive a couple more nominations. She still needs one more win to tie
Hepburn's record of 4 Acting Oscars, so you know she's not quitting anytime soon.
One more thing to look for ...
Ellen Degeneres is hosting the Oscars tomorrow night for the 2nd time in her career(the first time was in 2007). She certainly brings a different style from last year's host, Seth McFarlane(who I enjoyed quite a bit). Ellen's family friendly brand of humor will definitely not offend anyone, but it can sometimes lack some of the sharp punchlines I tend to enjoy on these broadcasts. I hope she studied the tape from Amy Poehler and Tina Fey's last 2 years hosting the Golden Gobes, because those ladies have managed to find the perfect middle ground between Ricky Gervais and Ellen Degeneres from the 2007 Oscars. Whatever happens, I'm just rooting for a great show. In a year full of so much intrigue for some of the biggest awards of the night, including Best Picture, I'm pretty confident that the 86th Annual Academy Awards will deliver! Unless Jennifer Lawrence wins, that would totally ruin it ... just kidding.
I hope this Viewer's Guide helps you enjoy the show. Feel free to post your own predictions and to let me know where you disagree with mine in the comments section.
And the Oscar goes to ...
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